Championship

Championship | Gameweek 14

Oct 28, 2023 at 12.30pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
3 - 1
Birmingham

Harwood-Bellis (9'), Alcaraz (22'), Armstrong (86')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Stansfield (58')
Aiwu (44'), Gardner (80'), James (90+3'), Stansfield (90+9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Preston 2-2 Southampton
Wednesday, October 25 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Birmingham City

All competitions

Last Game: Birmingham 0-2 Hull City
Wednesday, October 25 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Southampton in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Southampton.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Birmingham City
46.21% ( 0.57)	24.35% ( -0.22)	29.44% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 57.54% (

0.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.13% (

0.79)

44.87% (

-0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.77% (

0.75)

67.23% (

-0.75)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.46% (

0.56)

19.54% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.55% (

0.91)

51.44% (

-0.91)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.51% (

0.16)

28.49% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.74% (

0.2)

64.26% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Southampton 46.21%

Birmingham City 29.44%

Draw 24.34%

Southampton	Draw	Birmingham City
2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.09% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.08% Total : 46.21%	1-1 @ 11.41% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.34%	1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 29.44%