Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.72%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Sturm Graz
54.74% ( -0.06)	20.1% ( 0.01)	25.16% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 69.32% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.14% (

0.03)

27.85% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.44% (

0.03)

48.56% (

-0.03)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.45% (

-0.01)

10.54% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.73% (

-0.02)

34.26% (

0.01)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.49% (

0.05)

22.5% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.93% (

0.08)

56.06% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 54.74%

Sturm Graz 25.16%

Draw 20.1%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 5.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.82% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.27% 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 54.74%	1-1 @ 7.96% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.1%	1-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.54% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 25.16%