Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 37.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.42%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sturm Graz would win this match.