Champions League

Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 15, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Merkur Arena

Sturm Graz
1 - 3
PSV

(PSV Eindhoven win 7-2 on aggregate)

Boving (26')
Hierlander (70'), Wuthrich (84'), Serrano (90')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Veerman (32'), de Jong (39'), Pepi (85' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Sturm Graz and PSV Eindhoven, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Sturm Graz 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt
Saturday, August 12 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Goals
for

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: PSV 2-0 Utrecht
Saturday, August 12 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
Sturm Graz	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
34.65% ( -0.16)	24.14% ( 0.01)	41.21% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 60.57% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.12% (

-0.06)

41.88% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.72% (

-0.06)

64.28% (

0.06)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.19% (

-0.11)

23.81% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.02% (

-0.16)

57.98% (

0.16)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.5% (

0.04)

20.5% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

0.07)

52.99% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Sturm Graz 34.65%

PSV Eindhoven 41.21%

Draw 24.14%

Sturm Graz	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
2-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.97% Total : 34.65%	1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.14%	1-2 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.33% 0-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 41.21%