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Africa Cup of Nations

Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade 26 Mars

Mali
6 - 0
Eswatini

Bilal Toure (7'), Dorgeles (17', 23', 77'), Doumbia (42'), Doumbia (89')
FT(HT: 4-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mali and Eswatini, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mozambique 0-1 Mali
Friday, November 15 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Eswatini

Last Game: Eswatini 1-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, November 15 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 65.63%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Eswatini had a probability of 11.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.04%) and 3-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.12%), while for a Eswatini win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
MaliDrawEswatini
65.63% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)22.69% (-0.017999999999997 -0.02)11.68% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 35.52% (0.166 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.15% (0.143 0.14)59.85% (-0.146 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.88% (0.109 0.11)80.13% (-0.11099999999999 -0.11)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.18% (0.040999999999997 0.04)17.83% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.43% (0.069000000000003 0.07)48.57% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Eswatini Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
43.23% (0.178 0.18)56.78% (-0.18 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.09% (0.102 0.1)88.91% (-0.104 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Mali 65.62%
    Eswatini 11.68%
    Draw 22.69%
MaliDrawEswatini
1-0 @ 17.45% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-0 @ 15.04% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
3-0 @ 8.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.52% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.9% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.73%
4-1 @ 2.11% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.39% (0.013 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.29% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 65.62%
0-0 @ 10.12% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
1-1 @ 9.88% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-2 @ 2.41% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.69%
0-1 @ 5.73%
1-2 @ 2.8% (0.02 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.62% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 11.68%

How you voted: Mali vs Eswatini

Mali
71.4%
Draw
28.6%
Eswatini
0.0%
14
Head to Head
Sep 10, 2024 2pm
Group Stage
Eswatini
0-1
Mali

Tfomo (14'), Masangane (45+3'), (49')
Bissouma (7')
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