Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 11, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade 26 Mars

Mali
1 - 0
Guinea-Bissau

Bilal Toure (62')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Encada (29'), Balde (64'), Nogueira (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mali and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Eswatini 0-1 Mali
Tuesday, September 10 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mozambique 2-1 Guinea-Bissau
Tuesday, September 10 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 19.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.

Result
Mali	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
55.24% ( -0.52)	24.88% ( 0.2)	19.88% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 46.01% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.77% (

-0.38)

55.23% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.54% (

-0.31)

76.46% (

0.31)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.04% (

-0.35)

19.96% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.88% (

-0.57)

52.12% (

0.57)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.48% (

0.13)

42.52% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.12% (

0.11)

78.88% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Mali 55.23%

Guinea-Bissau 19.88%

Draw 24.88%

Mali	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 13.67% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.55% Total : 55.23%	1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.03% Other @ 0.67% Total : 24.88%	0-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 5% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 1.94% Total : 19.88%