Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 47.25%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 24.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.92%) and 1-2 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 1-0 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.