Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 40.68%. A win for Mauritius had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.09%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Mauritius win was 1-0 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.