Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Preliminary Round | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2024 at 7pm UK

Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Somalia
0 - 3
Eswatini

(Eswatini win 5-2 on aggregate)

FT(HT: 0-2)

Figuaredo (33'), Ndzinisa (45+4'), Thwala (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Somalia and Eswatini, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Somalia

Last Game: Somalia 0-1 Uganda
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Eswatini

Last Game: Eswatini 0-2 Cape Verde
Tuesday, November 21 at 2.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 77.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 6.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.85%) and 0-3 (12.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Somalia win it was 1-0 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Eswatini would win this match.

Result
Somalia	Draw	Eswatini
6.69% ( 0.44)	15.55% ( 0.7)	77.76% ( -1.14)

Both teams to score 36.09% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.19% (

-1.33)

46.8% (

1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.94% (

-1.25)

69.06% (

1.26)

Somalia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

40.15% (

0.45)

59.85% (

-0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

9.42% (

0.23)

90.57% (

-0.23)

Eswatini Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.9% (

-0.62)

10.1% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.74% (

-1.45)

33.25% (

1.45)

Score Analysis

Somalia 6.69%

Eswatini 77.75%

Draw 15.55%

Somalia	Draw	Eswatini
1-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.76% Total : 6.69%	1-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.3% Total : 15.55%	0-2 @ 15.88% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 13.85% ( 0.39) 0-3 @ 12.14% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0.13) 0-4 @ 6.96% ( -0.38) 1-3 @ 6.23% ( -0.07) 1-4 @ 3.57% ( -0.14) 0-5 @ 3.19% ( -0.27) 1-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.01) 0-6 @ 1.22% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 77.75%