Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 6, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade 26 Mars

Mali
1 - 1
Mozambique

Bissouma (52')
Diakite (74')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Catamo (37')
Guimaraes (28'), Ernan (81')

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Mali and Mozambique.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Last Game: Madagascar 0-0 Mali
Tuesday, June 11 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Mozambique

All competitions

Last Game: Comoros 2-2 Mozambique (1-3 pen.)
Sunday, July 7 at 11am in COSAFA Cup

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Verde	3	4	7
2	Egypt	3	0	3
3	Ghana	3	-1	2
4	Mozambique	3	-3	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 16.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Mali	Draw	Mozambique
59.1% ( 0.73)	24.47% ( -0.45)	16.43% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 41.51% (

0.64)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.91% (

1.15)

58.09% (

-1.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.24% (

0.9)

78.76% (

-0.89)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.43% (

0.73)

19.57% (

-0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.51% (

1.18)

51.49% (

-1.17)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.61% (

0.34)

48.39% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.49% (

0.24)

83.51% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Mali 59.08%

Mozambique 16.43%

Draw 24.47%

Mali	Draw	Mozambique
1-0 @ 15.44% ( -0.32) 2-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.17) 4-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.55% Total : 59.08%	1-1 @ 11.21% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.47% Total : 24.47%	0-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 16.43%