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Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Mbombela Stadium
Mali national football team

Eswatini
0 - 1
Mali


Tfomo (14'), Masangane (45+3'), (49')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bissouma (7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Eswatini and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Eswatini

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Eswatini
Thursday, September 5 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 51.46%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Eswatini had a probability of 20.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.23%) and 1-2 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Eswatini win it was 1-0 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mali in this match.

Result
EswatiniDrawMali
20.58% (0.097999999999999 0.1)27.96% (0.0019999999999989 0)51.46% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 39.3% (0.104 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
35.45% (0.072000000000003 0.07)64.55% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.42% (0.050000000000001 0.05)83.57% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Eswatini Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.78% (0.151 0.15)47.22% (-0.153 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.35% (0.113 0.11)82.65% (-0.114 -0.11)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.46% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)25.54% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)60.4% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Eswatini 20.58%
    Mali 51.46%
    Draw 27.96%
EswatiniDrawMali
1-0 @ 9.05% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 4.64% (0.026 0.03)
2-0 @ 3.4% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.16% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 20.58%
1-1 @ 12.35% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 12.06% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 3.16% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 27.96%
0-1 @ 16.46% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 11.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 8.43% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 5.11% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 1.74% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.44% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.31%
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 51.46%

How you voted: Eswatini vs Mali

Eswatini
29.6%
Draw
7.4%
Mali
63.0%
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