Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2024 at 2pm UK

Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto

Mozambique
2 - 1
Guinea-Bissau

Guimaraes (5'), Macamo (73')
Guimaraes (38'), Ernan (90')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Balde (24')
Balde (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mozambique

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Verde	3	4	7
2	Egypt	3	0	3
3	Ghana	3	-1	2
4	Mozambique	3	-3	2

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Eswatini
Thursday, September 5 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Mozambique in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mozambique.

Result
Mozambique	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
40.02% ( 0.3)	27.49% ( -0.16)	32.49% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 48.85% (

0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.28% (

0.55)

56.71% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.33% (

0.44)

77.67% (

-0.44)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.27% (

0.43)

27.73% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.7% (

0.55)

63.29% (

-0.56)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.6% (

0.18)

32.4% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.08% (

0.2)

68.91% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Mozambique 40.02%

Guinea-Bissau 32.48%

Draw 27.48%

Mozambique	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.89% Total : 40.02%	1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.48%	0-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.32% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.68% Total : 32.48%