Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 44.58%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 26.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-2 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Mozambique win it was 1-0 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.