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Africa Cup of Nations

Burkina Faso national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)
Burundi national football team

Burkina Faso
4 - 1
Burundi

Ouattara (33', 44'), Banse (34'), Dayo (49')
Farid Ouedraogo (85'), Toure (86')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Kanakimana (4')
Ndizeye (31'), Bukuru (39'), Michel Musore (73'), Shabani (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Burkina Faso and Burundi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burkina Faso

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Burkina Faso 3-1 Malawi
Tuesday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Burundi

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Burundi 0-1 Senegal
Monday, September 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 55.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Burundi had a probability of 20.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Burundi win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.

Result
Burkina FasoDrawBurundi
55.79% (1.063 1.06)24.19% (-0.168 -0.17)20.02% (-0.898 -0.9)
Both teams to score 48.16% (-0.806 -0.81)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.51% (-0.398 -0.4)52.49% (0.395 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.84% (-0.343 -0.34)74.15% (0.34 0.34)
Burkina Faso Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.31% (0.254 0.25)18.69% (-0.256 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.96% (0.426 0.43)50.03% (-0.429 -0.43)
Burundi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.23% (-1.18 -1.18)40.77% (1.178 1.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.65% (-1.076 -1.08)77.35% (1.073 1.07)
Score Analysis
    Burkina Faso 55.78%
    Burundi 20.02%
    Draw 24.19%
Burkina FasoDrawBurundi
1-0 @ 12.78% (0.31 0.31)
2-0 @ 10.71% (0.33 0.33)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 5.99% (0.236 0.24)
3-1 @ 5.38% (0.043 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.51% (0.119 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.41% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.25% (0.036 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 55.78%
1-1 @ 11.46% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 7.62% (0.118 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.31% (-0.141 -0.14)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 24.19%
0-1 @ 6.84% (-0.114 -0.11)
1-2 @ 5.14% (-0.213 -0.21)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.152 -0.15)
1-3 @ 1.54% (-0.116 -0.12)
2-3 @ 1.29% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-3 @ 0.92% (-0.077 -0.08)
Other @ 1.23%
Total : 20.02%

How you voted: Burkina Faso vs Burundi

Burkina Faso
69.7%
Draw
21.2%
Burundi
9.1%
33