Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
32.73% ( 1.1) | 24.06% ( 0.09) | 43.2% ( -1.19) |
Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.92% | 42.08% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.52% | 64.48% ( 0) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.98% ( 0.66) | 25.01% ( -0.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.32% ( 0.91) | 59.67% ( -0.91) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.3% ( -0.51) | 19.69% ( 0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.3% ( -0.83) | 51.69% ( 0.84) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.64% Total : 32.73% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.06% | 1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.11% Total : 43.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 50 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 26 | 18 | 49 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 42 |
4 | Macarthur | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 41 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 38 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 36 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 34 |
8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 30 |
9 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 29 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 22 |
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