Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 42.96%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 33.21% | 23.83% | 42.96% |
| Both teams to score 61.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.21% | 40.79% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.82% | 63.18% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.88% | 24.11% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.58% | 58.41% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.73% | 19.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49% | 51% |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 7.74% 1-0 @ 6.61% 2-0 @ 4.7% 3-1 @ 3.67% 3-2 @ 3.02% 3-0 @ 2.23% 4-1 @ 1.31% 4-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.86% Total : 33.21% | 1-1 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 6.37% 0-0 @ 4.65% 3-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.82% | 1-2 @ 8.96% 0-1 @ 7.65% 0-2 @ 6.3% 1-3 @ 4.92% 2-3 @ 3.5% 0-3 @ 3.46% 1-4 @ 2.03% 2-4 @ 1.44% 0-4 @ 1.42% Other @ 3.29% Total : 42.96% |