Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 49.65% | 23.18% | 27.17% |
| Both teams to score 59.88% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.99% | 41.01% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.6% | 63.4% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.3% | 16.7% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.42% | 46.58% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.89% | 28.11% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.21% | 63.79% |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% 1-0 @ 8.4% 2-0 @ 7.52% 3-1 @ 5.69% 3-0 @ 4.49% 3-2 @ 3.61% 4-1 @ 2.55% 4-0 @ 2.01% 4-2 @ 1.62% 5-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.31% Total : 49.65% | 1-1 @ 10.66% 2-2 @ 6.05% 0-0 @ 4.69% 3-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.17% | 1-2 @ 6.76% 0-1 @ 5.96% 0-2 @ 3.78% 1-3 @ 2.86% 2-3 @ 2.56% 0-3 @ 1.6% 1-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.17% |