World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2025 at 2.10am UK

Sky Stadium

New Caledonia
3 - 0
Tahiti

Gope-Fenepej (50', 50', 75', 75'), Waya (90+1', 90+1')
Laurent Waihae Bako (8'), Laurent Waihae Bako (8'), Athale (70'), Athale (70'), Mathelon (73'), Mathelon (73')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tehau (59'), Tehau (59')
Poma (90+3'), Poma (90+3')

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Semi-Finals clash between New Caledonia and Tahiti.

Form, Standings, Stats

New Caledonia

Last Game: Fiji 1-1 New Caledonia
Sunday, November 17 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Tahiti

Last Game: Tahiti 2-0 Vanuatu
Monday, November 18 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 60.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Tahiti had a probability of 18.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Tahiti win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.

Result
New Caledonia	Draw	Tahiti
60.31% ( 1.28)	21.54% ( -0.42)	18.15% ( -0.86)

Both teams to score 53.22% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.87% (

0.51)

44.13% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.49% (

0.49)

66.51% (

-0.49)

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.8% (

0.57)

14.2% (

-0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.09% (

1.1)

41.91% (

-1.11)

Tahiti Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.02% (

-0.66)

37.97% (

0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.25% (

-0.64)

74.74% (

0.64)

Score Analysis

New Caledonia 60.3%

Tahiti 18.15%

Draw 21.54%

New Caledonia	Draw	Tahiti
1-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.82% Total : 60.3%	1-1 @ 10.19% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.54%	0-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.33% Total : 18.15%