World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Oct 10, 2024 at 5am UK

TFL National Stadium

New Caledonia
3 - 1
P. New Guinea

Athale (20' pen., 20' pen.), Gope-Fenepej (45', 45'), Haewegene (83', 83')
Gabriel Djuela Kenon (75'), Gabriel Djuela Kenon (75'), Mathelon (86'), Mathelon (86')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Semmy (78', 78')

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea.

Form, Standings, Stats

New Caledonia

Last Game: Solomon Islands 1-0 New Caledonia
Saturday, October 14 at 7am in International Friendlies

Papua New Guinea

Last Game: CAR 4-0 P. New Guinea
Monday, March 25 at 9.30am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 72.01%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 11.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.

Result
New Caledonia	Draw	Papua New Guinea
72.01% ( 0.05)	16.59% ( 0.12)	11.4% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 53.02% (

-1.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.32% (

-1.07)

35.68% (

1.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.26% (

-1.19)

57.74% (

1.2)

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.32% (

-0.25)

8.68% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.11% (

-0.63)

29.89% (

0.63)

Papua New Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.06% (

-1.01)

41.94% (

1.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.62% (

-0.89)

78.38% (

0.89)

Score Analysis

New Caledonia 72.01%

Papua New Guinea 11.4%

Draw 16.59%

New Caledonia	Draw	Papua New Guinea
2-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.37) 3-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.1) 6-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1% ( -0.06) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.77% Total : 72.01%	1-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.19) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.59%	1-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.35% Total : 11.4%