Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Plaza Colonia.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.86%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.