Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 55.88%. A win for Amarante had a probability of 22.31% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Amarante win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.

Result
Gil Vicente	Draw	Amarante
55.88% ( 0.35)	21.81% ( -0.08)	22.31% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 59.18% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.51% (

0.03)

39.49% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.17% (

0.03)

61.83% (

-0.03)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.95% (

0.12)

14.05% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.39% (

0.24)

41.61% (

-0.24)

Amarante Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.85% (

-0.22)

31.15% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.52% (

-0.26)

67.48% (

0.26)

Score Analysis

Gil Vicente 55.88%

Amarante 22.31%

Draw 21.81%

Gil Vicente	Draw	Amarante
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.75% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.32% Total : 55.88%	1-1 @ 10.01% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.81%	1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.73% Total : 22.31%