Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 21
Feb 16, 2025 at 4.30pm UK
Stadion Miejski

Jagiellonia
3 - 0
Motor Lublin

Kubicki (27', 69'), Churlinov (59')
Churlinov (45+5'), Polak (67'), Ebosse (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Samper (41')
Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Motor Lublin.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Backa Topola 1-3 Jagiellonia
Thursday, February 13 at 5.45pm in Conference League

Motor Lublin

All competitions
Last Game: Korona Kielce 1-0 Motor Lublin
Sunday, February 9 at 11.15am in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 58.05%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Motor Lublin had a probability of 19.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Motor Lublin win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.

Result
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawMotor Lublin
58.05% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)22.88% (0.058 0.06)19.07% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 50.56% (-0.218 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.51% (-0.27399999999999 -0.27)48.49% (0.267 0.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.38% (-0.25 -0.25)70.62% (0.245 0.25)
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.58% (-0.113 -0.11)16.42% (0.107 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.92% (-0.198 -0.2)46.07% (0.191 0.19)
Motor Lublin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.5% (-0.182 -0.18)39.5% (0.175 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.81% (-0.169 -0.17)76.19% (0.163 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 58.04%
    Motor Lublin 19.07%
    Draw 22.88%
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawMotor Lublin
1-0 @ 11.71% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 10.58% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.83% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.38% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 5.92% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.88% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.75% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.68% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.04% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 0.97% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 58.04%
1-1 @ 10.88% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 6.48% (0.071 0.07)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 22.88%
0-1 @ 6.02% (0.037999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.05% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.8% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 1.57% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.41% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 19.07%

Head to Head
Sep 25, 2024 6pm
Gameweek 4
Motor Lublin
0-2
Jagiellonia

Caliskaner (20')
Romanczuk (4'), Normann Hansen (50')
Romanczuk (45+1'), Sacek (66'), Dieguez (86')