UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
2 - 0
Luxembourg

McNair (11'), Ballard (17')
Brown (87')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Mahmutovic (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Andorra
Tuesday, June 11 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	10	11	22
2	Denmark	10	9	22
3	Finland	10	8	18
4	Kazakhstan	10	4	18
5	Northern Ireland	10	-4	9
6	San Marino	10	-28	0

Luxembourg

All competitions

Last Game: Belgium 3-0 Luxembourg
Saturday, June 8 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	10	34	30
2	Slovakia	10	9	22
3	Luxembourg	10	-6	17
4	Iceland	10	1	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	10	-11	9
6	Liechtenstein	10	-27	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 86.37%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 2.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (15.75%) and 1-0 (13.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (5.15%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 17.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Luxembourg
86.37% ( 1.89)	10.68% ( -1.02)	2.95% ( -0.87)

Both teams to score 26% (

-4.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.91% (

-0.4)

43.09% (

0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.51% (

-0.39)

65.49% (

0.39)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.84% (

0.35)

7.16% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.97% (

0.91)

26.03% (

-0.92)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

28% (

-4.56)

72% (

4.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

4.35% (

-1.65)

95.65% (

1.64)

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 86.35%

Luxembourg 2.95%

Draw 10.68%

Northern Ireland	Draw	Luxembourg
2-0 @ 17.91% ( 0.94) 3-0 @ 15.75% ( 1.11) 1-0 @ 13.58% ( 0.48) 4-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.9) 2-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.8) 5-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.57) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.6) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.33) 6-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.29) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.14) 7-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.67% Total : 86.35%	0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.09) 1-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.7) 2-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.35) Other @ 0.1% Total : 10.68%	0-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.3) Other @ 1.26% Total : 2.95%