Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for York City had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest York City win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.
| Result | ||
| York City | Draw | Rochdale |
| 29.1% ( | 27.09% ( | 43.8% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.68% ( | 56.32% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.65% ( | 77.35% ( |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.34% | 34.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.61% | 71.39% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.47% ( | 25.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.61% ( | 60.38% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| York City | Draw | Rochdale |
| 1-0 @ 9.38% 2-1 @ 6.78% 2-0 @ 4.97% 3-1 @ 2.4% 3-0 @ 1.75% ( 3-2 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.19% Total : 29.1% | 1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 2-2 @ 4.63% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 12.08% 1-2 @ 8.74% 0-2 @ 8.25% 1-3 @ 3.98% 0-3 @ 3.75% ( 2-3 @ 2.11% 1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0-4 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.26% Total : 43.8% |