National League South | Gameweek 45

Apr 21, 2025 at 3pm UK

Hornchurch Stadium

Hornchurch
2 - 0
Aveley

Greenidge (21'), Gibbs (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Coverage of the National League South clash between AFC Hornchurch and Aveley.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Hornchurch

All competitions

Last Game: Tonbridge Angels 0-1 Hornchurch
Friday, April 18 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Aveley

All competitions

Last Game: Aveley 1-0 Chelmsford City
Friday, April 18 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Aveley had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Aveley win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Hornchurch would win this match.

Result
AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Aveley
43.33% ( -0.9)	25.81% ( 0.16)	30.86% ( 0.74)

Both teams to score 53.47% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.47% (

-0.37)

50.53% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.55% (

-0.32)

72.45% (

0.33)

AFC Hornchurch Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.8% (

-0.58)

23.2% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.9% (

-0.86)

57.1% (

0.87)

Aveley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.63% (

0.33)

30.37% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.44% (

0.39)

66.56% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

AFC Hornchurch 43.33%

Aveley 30.86%

Draw 25.8%

AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Aveley
1-0 @ 10.29% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 4.36% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.05% Total : 43.33%	1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.8%	0-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 30.86%