National League South | Gameweek 43
Apr 12, 2025 at 3pm UK
Hornchurch Stadium

Hornchurch
1 - 3
Truro City

Wraight (18', 18')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kabia (53', 53', 66', 66', 70', 70')
Coverage of the National League South clash between AFC Hornchurch and Truro City.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Hornchurch

All competitions
Last Game: Welling United 0-0 Hornchurch
Saturday, April 5 at 3pm in National League South

Truro City

All competitions
Last Game: Worthing 1-2 Truro City
Saturday, April 5 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Truro City win with a probability of 55%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for AFC Hornchurch had a probability of 20.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Truro City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.55%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for an AFC Hornchurch win it was 1-0 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Truro City would win this match.

Result
AFC HornchurchDrawTruro City
20.58% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03)24.43% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)55% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Both teams to score 48.28% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.25% (0.039999999999999 0.04)52.74% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.62% (0.035 0.04)74.37% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
AFC Hornchurch Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.67%40.32% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.05% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)76.95% (0.00099999999999056 0)
Truro City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.91% (0.031999999999996 0.03)19.09% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.3% (0.053999999999995 0.05)50.7% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    AFC Hornchurch 20.58%
    Truro City 54.98%
    Draw 24.42%
AFC HornchurchDrawTruro City
1-0 @ 6.99% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-1 @ 5.26% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-0 @ 3.18% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.59% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.32%
3-0 @ 0.96% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.28%
Total : 20.58%
1-1 @ 11.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.7% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.35% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.42%
0-1 @ 12.74% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 10.55%
1-2 @ 9.59% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-3 @ 5.83% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 5.29% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-4 @ 2.41% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 2.19% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-4 @ 1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 54.98%

Head to Head
Jan 4, 2025 3pm
Gameweek 25
Truro City
2-1
Hornchurch
Palfrey (82'), Neal (90+7')
Dean (33'), Sanders (62')
McQueen (90+3')
Bertram-Cooper (90+3'), D (90+11')
rhs 2.0


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