National League South | Gameweek 38

Mar 10, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Vauxhall Ground

Hemel Hemps.
3 - 1
Hornchurch

Ogungbo (8'), Barzey (21'), Lynch (54')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hearn (61')

Coverage of the National League South clash between Hemel Hempstead Town and AFC Hornchurch.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hemel Hempstead Town

All competitions

Last Game: Hampton 1-2 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, March 8 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

AFC Hornchurch

All competitions

Last Game: Hornchurch 0-0 Maidstone
Saturday, March 8 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 42.06%. A win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Hemel Hempstead Town win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Hemel Hempstead Town	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
32.3% ( 0.02)	25.63%	42.06% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 54.62% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.69% (

-0)

49.3% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.64% (

-0)

71.36% (

Hemel Hempstead Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.2% (

0.01)

28.79% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.35% (

0.01)

64.64% (

-0.01)

AFC Hornchurch Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.71% (

-0.01)

23.29% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.78% (

-0.01)

57.22% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Hemel Hempstead Town 32.3%

AFC Hornchurch 42.06%

Draw 25.63%

Hemel Hempstead Town	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.57% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.29% 3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 32.3%	1-1 @ 12.16% 0-0 @ 6.71% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.52% 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.63%	0-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.86% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.12% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.31% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.46% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.68% 1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.06% Total : 42.06%