Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 42.06%. A win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Hemel Hempstead Town win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.