Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 43.08%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Buxton	Draw	Alfreton Town
43.08% ( 0.1)	27.13% ( -0.03)	29.79% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 48.92% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.84% (

0.07)

56.16% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.78% (

0.05)

77.22% (

-0.06)

Buxton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.17% (

0.08)

25.83% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.21% (

0.11)

60.79% (

-0.12)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.95% (

-0.02)

34.05% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.26% (

-0.03)

70.73% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Buxton 43.08%

Alfreton Town 29.79%

Draw 27.12%

Buxton	Draw	Alfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.92% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 43.08%	1-1 @ 12.82% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.12%	0-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.31% Total : 29.79%