Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 37.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.