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Championship header 2

League Two

Carlisle United
League Two
May 28, 2023 at 1.30pm UK
Wembley Stadium
Stockport County

Carlisle
1 - 1
Stockport

Patrick (84')
FT
(aet)
Mellish (34' og.)
Carlisle win 5-4 on penalties

The Match

Match Report

Carlisle United are promoted to League One courtesy of a penalty-shootout win over Stockport County in the playoff final.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Stockport County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 3-1 Bradford
Saturday, May 20 at 3pm in League Two

Stockport County

All competitions
Last Game: Stockport 2-1 Salford City (3-1 pen.)
Saturday, May 20 at 12.30pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stockport County win with a probability of 36.7%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 35.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stockport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%).

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawStockport County
35.54% (0.042000000000002 0.04)27.76% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)36.7% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 48.52% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.64% (0.042000000000002 0.04)57.36% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.82% (0.033000000000001 0.03)78.18% (-0.030999999999992 -0.03)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.29% (0.046999999999997 0.05)30.71% (-0.046000000000003 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.04% (0.056000000000004 0.06)66.96% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Stockport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.02% (0.0010000000000048 0)29.98% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.9% (0.0010000000000048 0)66.1%
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 35.54%
    Stockport County 36.7%
    Draw 27.76%
Carlisle UnitedDrawStockport County
1-0 @ 10.87%
2-1 @ 7.73% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.42% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.04% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.53% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 35.54%
1-1 @ 13.09%
0-0 @ 9.21% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.66% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 27.76%
0-1 @ 11.09% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.89% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 6.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.17% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.87% (0.002 0)
1-4 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 36.7%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Stockport

Carlisle United
28.1%
Draw
35.9%
Stockport County
35.9%
64
Head to Head
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
gameweek 43
Carlisle
2-2
Stockport
Mellish (54'), Moxon (83')
Hippolyte (31'), Lemonheigh-Evans (86')
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
gameweek 13
Stockport
2-0
Carlisle
Hippolyte (20'), Wootton (57')
Jan 23, 2010 3pm
Carlisle
0-0
Stockport

Keogh (44'), Horwood (44'), Anyinsah (70')
Dobie (72')

Ibehre (19'), Raynes (34')
Ibehre (81')
Aug 18, 2009 3pm
Stockport
1-2
Carlisle
Keogh (14' og.)
Raynes (58'), Havern (68')
Hurst (13'), Anyinsah (65')
Robson (82'), Dobie (90')
Feb 21, 2009 3pm
Carlisle
1-2
Stockport
Neal (53')
Kane (51')
Blizzard (6'), Rowe (70')