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Championship header 2

League One

Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Stevenage

Carlisle
2 - 2
Stevenage

Butterworth (13', 65')
Charters (45+2'), Neal (67'), Butterworth (72'), Lewis (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
MacDonald (82' pen.), Vancooten (90+6')
Freeman (29'), Roberts (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Stevenage

All competitions
Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 18.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
18.21% (-0.395 -0.4)23.27% (-0.367 -0.37)58.52% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 47.94% (0.396 0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.76% (0.887 0.89)51.24% (-0.887 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.92% (0.771 0.77)73.08% (-0.77200000000001 -0.77)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.91% (0.058999999999997 0.06)42.09% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.49% (0.050999999999998 0.05)78.51% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.596 0.6)17.23% (-0.597 -0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (1.039 1.04)47.52% (-1.039 -1.04)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 18.21%
    Stevenage 58.51%
    Draw 23.26%
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 6.28% (-0.216 -0.22)
2-1 @ 4.78% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-0 @ 2.72% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-1 @ 1.38% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.21% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 18.21%
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 7.25% (-0.261 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.2% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 23.26%
0-1 @ 12.75% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 11.21% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
1-2 @ 9.7% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 6.57% (0.15 0.15)
1-3 @ 5.69% (0.139 0.14)
0-4 @ 2.89% (0.121 0.12)
1-4 @ 2.5% (0.108 0.11)
2-3 @ 2.46% (0.064 0.06)
2-4 @ 1.08% (0.048 0.05)
0-5 @ 1.02% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 58.51%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Stevenage

Carlisle United
14.5%
Draw
36.4%
Stevenage
49.1%
55
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 7
Stevenage
2-2
Carlisle
Reid (15', 74')
McNeill (37'), Roberts (72')
Maguire (20'), Garner (90')
Gibson (31'), Guy (83')
> Preview
Mar 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 37
Carlisle
0-0
Stevenage
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 5
Stevenage
2-1
Carlisle
Smith (16'), Clark (42')
Norris (89'), Ashby-Hammond (90+2')
Dennis (45+2')
Harris (69')
Apr 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 45
Carlisle
2-1
Stevenage
Riley (52'), Alessandra (63')
Norris (88' pen.)
Taylor (33')
Dec 11, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 21
Stevenage
0-2
Carlisle

Wildin (72')
Mellish (45'), Gibson (65' pen.)
Mellor (7')