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FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round Qualifying
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Bowden Park
Bury

Harborough Town
1 - 0
Bury

Stephens (77' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the FA Cup Fourth Round Qualifying clash between Harborough Town and Bury.

Form, Standings, Stats

Harborough Town

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Last Game: Harborough Town 1-0 Leamington
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Bury

All competitions
Last Game: Radcliffe 2-3 Bury
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harborough Town win with a probability of 57.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Bury had a probability of 20.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Harborough Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.62%) and 1-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for a Bury win it was 1-2 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Harborough Town would win this match.

Result
Harborough TownDrawBury
57.88% (-0.442 -0.44)21.21% (-0.253 -0.25)20.91% (0.693 0.69)
Both teams to score 59.22% (2.027 2.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.51% (2.152 2.15)38.49% (-2.153 -2.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.22% (2.241 2.24)60.78% (-2.243 -2.24)
Harborough Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.89% (0.56699999999999 0.57)13.1% (-0.569 -0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.26% (1.139 1.14)39.74% (-1.142 -1.14)
Bury Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.15% (1.9 1.9)31.85% (-1.901 -1.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.71% (2.118 2.12)68.29% (-2.121 -2.12)
Score Analysis
    Harborough Town 57.88%
    Bury 20.91%
    Draw 21.21%
Harborough TownDrawBury
2-1 @ 9.86% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-0 @ 8.62% (-0.517 -0.52)
1-0 @ 8.48% (-0.7 -0.7)
3-1 @ 6.68% (0.098999999999999 0.1)
3-0 @ 5.84% (-0.221 -0.22)
3-2 @ 3.82% (0.247 0.25)
4-1 @ 3.39% (0.12 0.12)
4-0 @ 2.97% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.94% (0.164 0.16)
5-1 @ 1.38% (0.076 0.08)
5-0 @ 1.21% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.69%
Total : 57.88%
1-1 @ 9.7% (-0.269 -0.27)
2-2 @ 5.64% (0.252 0.25)
0-0 @ 4.17% (-0.441 -0.44)
3-3 @ 1.46% (0.163 0.16)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 21.21%
1-2 @ 5.55% (0.136 0.14)
0-1 @ 4.78% (-0.237 -0.24)
0-2 @ 2.73% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.15% (0.201 0.2)
1-3 @ 2.12% (0.156 0.16)
0-3 @ 1.04% (0.057 0.06)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 20.91%