FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round

Nov 5, 2022 at 3pm UK

Technique Stadium

Chesterfield
1 - 0
Northampton

Dobra (14')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Chesterfield and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chesterfield

All competitions

Last Game: Chesterfield 2-1 Gateshead
Tuesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in National League

Goals
for

Northampton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Northampton 1-1 Newport
Saturday, October 29 at 2pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.

Result
Chesterfield	Draw	Northampton Town
39.2% ( 0.17)	24.36% ( -0.02)	36.44% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 60.05% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.32% (

0.08)

42.68% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.91% (

0.08)

65.09% (

-0.08)

Chesterfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.2% (

0.12)

21.8% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.99% (

0.18)

55.01% (

-0.18)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.79% (

-0.04)

23.21% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.89% (

-0.06)

57.11% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Chesterfield 39.2%

Northampton Town 36.44%

Draw 24.35%

Chesterfield	Draw	Northampton Town
2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.53% Total : 39.2%	1-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.35%	1-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.05% 0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.22% Total : 36.44%