Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 8, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Martin Torres

Ameliano
2 - 1
Danubio

Valdez (31', 35'), Gonzalez (41', 46')
Vera (88'), Vera (88')

FT(HT: 3-2)

Ancheta (8', 9')
Brazionis (4'), Brazionis (12')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Sportivo Ameliano and Danubio.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sportivo Ameliano

Last Game: Rayo Zuliano 0-4 Ameliano
Thursday, April 25 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana

Danubio

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Danubio 1-1 Rampla
Friday, May 3 at 4.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Sportivo Ameliano win was 1-0 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Danubio
33.66% ( 0.13)	27.69% ( 0.05)	38.65% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 48.52% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.74% (

-0.15)

57.26% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.89% (

-0.12)

78.11% (

0.11)

Sportivo Ameliano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.12% (

0.01)

31.88% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.67% (

0.01)

68.33% (

-0.02)

Danubio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.23% (

-0.17)

28.77% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.38% (

-0.21)

64.62% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano 33.65%

Danubio 38.64%

Draw 27.69%

Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Danubio
1-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) Other @ 2.81% Total : 33.65%	1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.69%	0-1 @ 11.42% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.14% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.72% Total : 38.64%