Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 8, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Ameliano
2 - 0
Olimpia

Gonzalez (27', 27'), Samudio (31', 31')
Rossi (47'), Rossi (47')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Ortiz (57'), Ortiz (57'), Arrua (64'), Arrua (64'), Olveira (67'), Olveira (67'), Salcedo (76'), Salcedo (76'), Salazar (80'), Salazar (80'), Parzajuk (90+8'), Parzajuk (90+8')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Sportivo Ameliano and Olimpia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sportivo Ameliano

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Last Game: Guarani 3-1 Ameliano
Wednesday, March 8 at 10pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Olimpia

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Last Game: Olimpia 1-3 Fluminense
Friday, September 1 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 49.43%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 24.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.37%) and 1-2 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 1-0 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Sportivo AmelianoDrawOlimpia
24.73% (0.118 0.12)25.84% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)49.43% (-0.112 -0.11)
Both teams to score 49.07% (0.11799999999999 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.8% (0.101 0.1)54.2% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.4% (0.085999999999999 0.09)75.6% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Sportivo Ameliano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.88% (0.158 0.16)37.12% (-0.155 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.09% (0.158 0.16)73.91% (-0.154 -0.15)
Olimpia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.04% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)21.96% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.76% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)55.24% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Sportivo Ameliano 24.73%
    Olimpia 49.43%
    Draw 25.83%
Sportivo AmelianoDrawOlimpia
1-0 @ 8.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 6.07% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 4% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.01% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.52% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.32% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 24.73%
1-1 @ 12.24%
0-0 @ 8.15% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 4.6% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 25.83%
0-1 @ 12.35% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 9.37% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 9.28% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
0-3 @ 4.73% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.69% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-3 @ 2.33% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.8% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.78% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 49.43%