Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 3, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Athletico Paranaense

Ameliano
1 - 4
Athletico PR

David Vera (15'), Vera (15')
FT(HT: 2-6)
Mastriani (6', 6', 73', 73'), Zapelli (32', 32'), Fernandinho (45+2', 45+2')
Gamarra (25'), Gamarra (25'), Heleno (33'), Heleno (33')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Sportivo Ameliano and Athletico Paranaense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sportivo Ameliano

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Last Game: Ameliano 2-0 Olimpia
Friday, March 8 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Last Game: Cuiaba 3-0 Athletico PR
Thursday, December 7 at 12.30am in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 16.64%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Sportivo AmelianoDrawAthletico Paranaense
16.64% (1.248 1.25)23.17% (0.19 0.19)60.2% (-1.433 -1.43)
Both teams to score 45.33% (1.981 1.98)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.84% (1.258 1.26)53.16% (-1.254 -1.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.27% (1.058 1.06)74.73% (-1.056 -1.06)
Sportivo Ameliano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.83% (2.432 2.43)45.17% (-2.43 -2.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.93% (1.87 1.87)81.07% (-1.867 -1.87)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.68% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)17.32% (0.059000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.31% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)47.69% (0.102 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Sportivo Ameliano 16.64%
    Athletico Paranaense 60.18%
    Draw 23.16%
Sportivo AmelianoDrawAthletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 6.22% (0.117 0.12)
2-1 @ 4.33% (0.355 0.36)
2-0 @ 2.47% (0.207 0.21)
3-1 @ 1.15% (0.163 0.16)
3-2 @ 1.01% (0.142 0.14)
Other @ 1.46%
Total : 16.64%
1-1 @ 10.9% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 7.83% (-0.394 -0.39)
2-2 @ 3.8% (0.304 0.3)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 23.16%
0-1 @ 13.71% (-0.72 -0.72)
0-2 @ 12.02% (-0.65 -0.65)
1-2 @ 9.56% (0.145 0.15)
0-3 @ 7.03% (-0.396 -0.4)
1-3 @ 5.59% (0.075 0.08)
0-4 @ 3.08% (-0.179 -0.18)
1-4 @ 2.45% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.22% (0.174 0.17)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.065 -0.07)
2-4 @ 0.97% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 60.18%