Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Zuliano win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Zuliano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Sportivo Ameliano win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.