Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 23, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin

Melgar
1 - 0
Puerto Cabello

Barrios (42', 42')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Mbaye (21'), Mbaye (21'), Peraza (79'), Peraza (79')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Melgar and Academia Puerto Cabello.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lanus 3-0 Melgar
Thursday, April 10 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Academia Puerto Cabello

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Vasco 1-0 Puerto Cabello
Wednesday, April 9 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 14.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Melgar in this match.

Result
MelgarDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
62.47% (-0.053000000000004 -0.05)22.72% (0.023 0.02)14.81% (0.028 0.03)
Both teams to score 42.82% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.58% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)54.42% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.21% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)75.79% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.02% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)16.98% (0.029999999999998 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.92% (-0.055 -0.05)47.08% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Academia Puerto Cabello Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.57% (0.016999999999996 0.02)48.43% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.46% (0.013999999999999 0.01)83.54% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Melgar 62.46%
    Academia Puerto Cabello 14.81%
    Draw 22.72%
MelgarDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
1-0 @ 14.57%
2-0 @ 12.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 7.64% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.54% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.39% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.46% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.2% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 62.46%
1-1 @ 10.57% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.22% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.4% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 22.72%
0-1 @ 5.96% (0.012 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 2.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 14.81%