Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 10, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus - Nestor Diaz Perez

Lanus
3 - 0
Melgar

Moreno (45+1', 45+1'), Salvio (47', 47'), Orozco (79', 79')
Aquino (37'), Aquino (37'), Javier Rodriguez (90'), Javier Rodriguez (90')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Orzan (34'), Orzan (34'), Martinez (69'), Martinez (69')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Lanus and Melgar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lanus

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Lanus 1-1 Independiente
Sunday, April 6 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Melgar

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Melgar 3-3 Vasco
Wednesday, April 2 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 18.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.

Result
LanusDrawMelgar
57.3% (0.123 0.12)24.68% (-0.099999999999998 -0.1)18.01% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 43.68% (0.224 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.25% (0.321 0.32)56.75% (-0.322 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.3% (0.257 0.26)77.7% (-0.25700000000001 -0.26)
Lanus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.26% (0.172 0.17)19.74% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.23% (0.28 0.28)51.77% (-0.27999999999999 -0.28)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.43% (0.163 0.16)45.57% (-0.163 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.61% (0.126 0.13)81.38% (-0.127 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Lanus 57.29%
    Melgar 18.01%
    Draw 24.68%
LanusDrawMelgar
1-0 @ 14.59% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-0 @ 11.84% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.4% (0.025 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.03% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.6% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.04% (0.028 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.98% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 57.29%
1-1 @ 11.47% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9% (-0.111 -0.11)
2-2 @ 3.66% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 24.68%
0-1 @ 7.07% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
1-2 @ 4.51% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.78% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.18% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 0.96% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 18.01%

rhs 2.0
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