Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 14.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.73%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.