Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.