Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Apr 2, 2025 at 11pm UK

Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin

Melgar
3 - 3
Vasco

Rodriguez (39'), Castro (80'), Cabrera (90')
Liza (45+4'), Fernando Lazo Zapata (77')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Coutinho (3'), Vegetti (32', 51')
Paulinho (27'), Lemos (45+4'), Oliveira (90+6')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Melgar and Vasco da Gama.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

Last Game: Cerro Porteno 4-2 Melgar
Wednesday, March 12 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Vasco da Gama

All competitions

Last Game: Vasco 2-1 Santos
Sunday, March 30 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Vasco da Gama
42.78% ( 0.03)	26.42% ( 0)	30.81% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 51.53% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.97% (

-0.03)

53.03% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.38% (

-0.02)

74.62% (

0.03)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.43% (

24.57% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.94% (

59.06% (

-0)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.32% (

-0.04)

31.68% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.9% (

-0.05)

68.1% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Melgar 42.77%

Vasco da Gama 30.81%

Draw 26.41%

Melgar	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 42.77%	1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.41%	0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 30.81%