Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Monumental

Atletico Grau
2 - 2
Sportivo

Garro (44', 44'), Bandiera (90+3', 90+3')
Rojas (23'), Rojas (23'), Guarderas (45+3'), Guarderas (45+3')
FT(HT: 2-4)
Ayala (8', 8'), Gonzalez (27', 27')
Benitez (65'), Benitez (65')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Atletico Grau and Sportivo Luqueno.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Grau

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Last Game: Gremio 2-0 Atletico Grau
Tuesday, April 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Sportivo Luqueno

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Last Game: Godoy Cruz 2-0 Sportivo
Wednesday, April 9 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Grau win with a probability of 64.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Sportivo Luqueno had a probability of 13.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Grau win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.67%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Sportivo Luqueno win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Atletico GrauDrawSportivo Luqueno
64.9% (0.037999999999997 0.04)21.92% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)13.18% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Both teams to score 41.13% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.55% (0.033000000000001 0.03)54.45% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.18% (0.029 0.03)75.82% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Atletico Grau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.84% (0.02300000000001 0.02)16.16% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.39% (0.044000000000004 0.04)45.61% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Sportivo Luqueno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.06% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)50.94% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.7% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)85.3% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Grau 64.89%
    Sportivo Luqueno 13.18%
    Draw 21.92%
Atletico GrauDrawSportivo Luqueno
1-0 @ 15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 13.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.22%
3-0 @ 8.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.6% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 3.79% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.55% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.89% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 1.38% (0.004 0)
5-1 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 64.89%
1-1 @ 10.12%
0-0 @ 8.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.11%
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 21.92%
0-1 @ 5.55% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.41% (-0.004 -0)
0-2 @ 1.87% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 13.18%