Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 7, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Mansiche

Atletico Grau
0 - 0
Garcilaso


Sandoval (27'), Sandoval (27'), Franco (57'), Franco (57')
FT

Fuentes (1'), Fuentes (1')
Fuentes (63'), Fuentes (63')
Atletico Grau win 4-2 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Atletico Grau and Real Garcilaso.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Grau

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Last Game: River Plate 1-0 Atletico Grau
Tuesday, February 25 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Real Garcilaso

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Last Game: Audax 3-0 Garcilaso
Friday, February 28 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Grau win with a probability of 65.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Real Garcilaso had a probability of 14.23%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Grau win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Real Garcilaso win it was 0-1 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.

Result
Atletico GrauDrawReal Garcilaso
65.63% (0.17099999999999 0.17)20.14% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)14.23% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.73% (0.147 0.15)45.27% (-0.151 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.39% (0.14 0.14)67.61% (-0.14400000000001 -0.14)
Atletico Grau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.04% (0.091999999999999 0.09)12.96% (-0.096 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.55% (0.192 0.19)39.45% (-0.196 -0.2)
Real Garcilaso Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.3% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)43.7% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.12% (-0.037000000000003 -0.04)79.87% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Grau 65.63%
    Real Garcilaso 14.23%
    Draw 20.14%
Atletico GrauDrawReal Garcilaso
2-0 @ 11.82% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 11.57% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.79% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 8.05% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.67% (0.022 0.02)
4-0 @ 4.11% (0.033 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.41% (0.024 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.76% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.68% (0.02 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.41% (0.008 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.39% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 65.63%
1-1 @ 9.58% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.66% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.05% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 20.14%
0-1 @ 4.69% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-2 @ 3.97% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 1.94% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 1.09% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 1.42%
Total : 14.23%