CAF Champions League | Second Preliminary Round | 1st Leg
Sep 15, 2024 at 1pm UK
Nyayo National Stadium

Gor Mahia
0 - 3
Al Ahly


Morrison (70')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Rabia (14'), Tau (15', 74')
Attia (38')
Coverage of the CAF Champions League Second Preliminary Round clash between Gor Mahia and Al Ahly.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gor Mahia

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Last Game: Gor Mahia 5-1 Al Merreikh Juba
Sunday, August 25 at 1pm in CAF Champions League
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Al Ahly

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Last Game: Al Ahly 1-0 ES Tunis
Saturday, May 25 at 6pm in CAF Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Ahly win with a probability of 71.13%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Gor Mahia had a probability of 9.68%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al Ahly win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (15.06%) and 0-3 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Gor Mahia win it was 1-0 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Ahly would win this match.

Result
Gor MahiaDrawAl Ahly
9.68% (-0.327 -0.33)19.18% (-0.044 -0.04)71.13% (0.372 0.37)
Both teams to score 38.19% (-0.997 -1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.92% (-0.68 -0.68)52.08% (0.68 0.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.19% (-0.592 -0.59)73.81% (0.59100000000001 0.59)
Gor Mahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.11% (-1.101 -1.1)55.88% (1.102 1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.59% (-0.652 -0.65)88.4% (0.652 0.65)
Al Ahly Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.58% (-0.097000000000008 -0.1)13.42% (0.098000000000001 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.63% (-0.195 -0.2)40.37% (0.195 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Gor Mahia 9.68%
    Al Ahly 71.12%
    Draw 19.18%
Gor MahiaDrawAl Ahly
1-0 @ 4.36% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 2.55% (-0.114 -0.11)
2-0 @ 1.27% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 9.68%
1-1 @ 8.76% (-0.089 -0.09)
0-0 @ 7.5% (0.201 0.2)
2-2 @ 2.56% (-0.124 -0.12)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 19.18%
0-2 @ 15.12% (0.3 0.3)
0-1 @ 15.06% (0.35 0.35)
0-3 @ 10.12% (0.157 0.16)
1-2 @ 8.8% (-0.121 -0.12)
1-3 @ 5.89% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-4 @ 5.09% (0.065 0.07)
1-4 @ 2.96% (-0.063 -0.06)
0-5 @ 2.04% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.089 -0.09)
1-5 @ 1.19% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 71.12%