Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gor Mahia win with a probability of 67.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Al Merreikh Juba had a probability of 12.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gor Mahia win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.3%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for an Al Merreikh Juba win it was 1-0 (4.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.