Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 39.4% | 27.53% | 33.08% |
| Both teams to score 48.89% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.26% | 56.74% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.31% | 77.69% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.91% | 28.09% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.24% | 63.76% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.99% | 32.01% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.53% | 68.48% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 1-0 @ 11.41% 2-1 @ 8.26% 2-0 @ 7.25% 3-1 @ 3.5% 3-0 @ 3.07% 3-2 @ 1.99% 4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.84% Total : 39.39% | 1-1 @ 13% 0-0 @ 8.99% 2-2 @ 4.7% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.52% | 0-1 @ 10.24% 1-2 @ 7.41% 0-2 @ 5.83% 1-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 2.22% 2-3 @ 1.79% Other @ 2.78% Total : 33.07% |