Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 44.3% | 27.6% | 28.1% |
| Both teams to score 46.68% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.43% | 58.57% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.86% | 79.14% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.69% | 26.3% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.57% | 61.43% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.34% | 36.65% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.56% | 73.44% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 1-0 @ 12.87% 2-1 @ 8.63% 2-0 @ 8.6% 3-1 @ 3.84% 3-0 @ 3.83% 3-2 @ 1.93% 4-1 @ 1.28% 4-0 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.04% Total : 44.29% | 1-1 @ 12.92% 0-0 @ 9.64% 2-2 @ 4.33% Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 9.68% 1-2 @ 6.49% 0-2 @ 4.86% 1-3 @ 2.17% 0-3 @ 1.62% 2-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 1.84% Total : 28.1% |