Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 14.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.53%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 14.98% | 22.11% | 62.91% |
| Both teams to score 44.85% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.13% | 51.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.38% | 73.62% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.36% | 46.64% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.78% | 82.21% |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.06% | 15.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.79% | 45.21% |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 5.67% 2-1 @ 3.97% 2-0 @ 2.16% 3-1 @ 1.01% 3-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.24% Total : 14.98% | 1-1 @ 10.41% 0-0 @ 7.43% 2-2 @ 3.65% Other @ 0.62% Total : 22.11% | 0-1 @ 13.65% 0-2 @ 12.53% 1-2 @ 9.56% 0-3 @ 7.67% 1-3 @ 5.85% 0-4 @ 3.52% 1-4 @ 2.69% 2-3 @ 2.23% 0-5 @ 1.29% 2-4 @ 1.03% 1-5 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.88% Total : 62.9% |