Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Tondela |
| 42.5% | 27.87% | 29.63% |
| Both teams to score 46.72% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.08% | 58.92% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.59% | 79.41% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.59% | 27.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.11% | 62.89% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.36% | 35.64% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.59% | 72.41% |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Tondela |
| 1-0 @ 12.64% 2-1 @ 8.44% 2-0 @ 8.18% 3-1 @ 3.64% 3-0 @ 3.53% 3-2 @ 1.88% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-0 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.86% Total : 42.49% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 9.77% 2-2 @ 4.36% Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.87% | 0-1 @ 10.07% 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-2 @ 5.2% 1-3 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.79% 2-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.02% Total : 29.62% |