Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 45.02%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 26.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Tondela |
| 45.02% | 28.02% | 26.96% |
| Both teams to score 44.84% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.44% | 60.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.34% | 80.66% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.14% | 26.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.84% | 62.16% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.56% | 75.44% |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Tondela |
| 1-0 @ 13.66% 2-0 @ 8.98% 2-1 @ 8.53% 3-0 @ 3.94% 3-1 @ 3.74% 3-2 @ 1.77% 4-0 @ 1.29% 4-1 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.88% Total : 45.02% | 1-1 @ 12.97% 0-0 @ 10.39% 2-2 @ 4.05% Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.02% | 0-1 @ 9.87% 1-2 @ 6.16% 0-2 @ 4.68% 1-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 1.48% 2-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 1.54% Total : 26.96% |